Ceteris Paribus

How many times as coaches have we heard the following statements?

“In a perfect world”

“All things being equal”

“Apples to apples”

“All things considered”

This is what we have been trained to think like in the academic setting (nothing wrong with this).  In essence, this is how statistical tools such as multiple regression work.  The goal is to tease out how one independent variable may affect the dependent variable while holding all other independent variables constant.  For example, a phycologist may predict college achievement from high school GPA while holding parents’ salary, type of high school (public vs private), extra circular achievement, and access to tutor’s constant.  These variables may confound results and muddy the waters between cause and effect. The aforementioned variables all may influence GPA and future collegiate success.  However, this enables an apples-to-apples comparison.

Apples and Oranges

Unfortunately, the world is a complex place.  Apples to apples comparisons (unless n=1) are next to impossible.  More often than not we make apples to oranges comparisons. 

Theory and practice are not one the same.  Take for example periodization and speed training, both hot topics in today’s strength and conditioning culture.  How should we one approach these constructs?  Which model? Speed train, or not? In attempting come to a logical conclusion, I choose to to tangle signal from noise using a critical rationalist approach.

Critical rationality is the belief that all answers have to be examined with an eye toward their failure.

Here are a few questions I ask myself via an Onion diagram:

Peel back each layer of the onion in your question asking process.

Teasing out signal from noise is not easy in complex systems.  Sure, the textbook is a great place to start, but there is noise all around us. So, which periodization plan should you use?  Should you train speed, or not?  I don’t have the answer for you, or your athletes, but answering the questions above based on your unique environment is a great place to start.