Unintended Consequences

The law of unintended consequences states that human beings, government, and complex systems, always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended.  A beautiful narrative illustrates this concept called “The Cobra Effect.”

“The Cobra Effect refers to the unintended negative consequences of an incentive that was designed to improve society or individual well-being. The term derives from an attempt to eradicate snakes in India, wherein people bred cobras to collect rewards for their capture.” -Psychology Today

As sports performance professionals, we too must consider unintended consequences whether incentivized or not.  By performing a simple pre-mortem check list we can serve to better prepare for these potential pitfalls.   

Pre-Mortem Check List:

• If A → B, what else may affect B – what are potential confounders

• If A → B, what happens to abilities C-Z

• What are my assumptions?

• How can I minimize adaptational risk, while upsizing gains?

A few simple heuristics we use to off-set these consequences:

•   1/N Heuristic:  Diversify the stress portfolio.  Train multiple bio-motor abilities within the micro-cycle.  If targeted interventions occur, slightly adjust.  Measure, manage.

•  Big Picture - Train the ability, don’t chase the metric:  We use force plates, and I have, and continue to make mistakes as I learn how to appropriately use them in the private sector.  We look at 3 variables:

1.     Health:  Propulsive/Braking Impulse Index

2.     Performance:  Jump Height

3.     Strategy:  Time to Take Off

If we see a limitation, we view it holistically, not piecemeal.  I was challenged recently by a friend and colleague Mal McHugh who asked: “Why would any one look at the output metrics individually on a force time curve.  It’s like looking at an EKG.  The picture tells the story (paraphrased).” 

 Unintended consequences are part and parcel of operating in complex environments.  Use them to improve your critical thinking skills.